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| Van the man... |
My recent post in defense of David Moyes has met with something of a mixed reaction from Manchester United fans. Some have said they found my writing informative and enlightening, others that it is too heavy on conjecture and retorted with some conjecture of their own (naturally not agreeing with mine).
So lets take a more statistical approach to the argument then (with maybe a little bit of conjecture thrown in as well). I said in my previous post that United aren't playing any worse this year than they were last year as a team and that this season's poor form is not all down to Moyes. I also said that last year I felt a combination of 'The Fergie Factor', Van Persie's goals and a weak league carried a poor team to the title. Others either did not agree with this point of view, or ignored it and continued with their '#moyesout' agenda.
I also remember saying last season around Christmas time that United would be in serious hot water indeed without the Dutchman for more than a few games, even with Fergie at the helm. People who at the time agreed with me are now pinning everything on Moyes! Time to look at some numbers then, analysing just how big an impact Van Persie has had in his one and a half seasons in Manchester:
Below are two tables. The first is Manchester United's performance during the 2012-2013 season, where we ultimately became champions and the second is Robin Van Persie's own performance during that same season. Games highlighted in red were defeats, those in yellow draws and the one in light blue was the 26th game of the season, taking us up to where we are now in the current campaign:
Perhaps at this point I best explain what the second table is showing. The first column shows the goals he scored and the second his assist record last season. The third column shows points taken in games in which Van Persie scored and the fourth column points taken where his goal was either the winner or the equaliser (whether the game stayed a draw or if someone else got the winner). The fifth column shows games where he got the assist for the equaliser or the winner. The last three columns show whether he played the full 90 minutes, came on as a sub or went off as one.
In total last season Van Persie scored 26 goals, got 8 assists and was on the score sheet for games that accounted for 62 of our season total 89 points. Of those 62 points he scored the winning goal in games that added up to 18 points or the equalising goal in games that went on to finish as draws or victories adding up to a further 7 points. In addition to this he added a further 9 points for providing the assist that won the match and two more points for providing an assist that led to a draw. During the 2012-2013 season he played the full 90 minutes 31 times, came on as a sub 4 times and went off as one 3 times.
Those season wide stats on their own give a pretty clear indication that Van Persie carried United to the title last season. A side with long standing and widely acknowledge midfield problems, who's ball retention wasn't great, putting pressure on an ageing and leaky defense.
When you look at Van Persie's stats after 26 games (where the current campaign stands) you will see that a massive chunk of his monster haul had already been racked up by the beginning of February. There after he was suffering from niggling injuries and never quite recaptured that electric form of earlier on in the season for more than short spells (I'm thinking of the game against Villa where we won the title as one that he did, for example).
Of the 62 points accrued when Van Persie scored, 50 of them were accounted for by the 26th game, a period in which he scored 19 of his 26 league goals that season and 7 of his 8 assists for the campaign. Of the 18 points he won by scoring the winner during the season, all 18 had been accrued by this point and 5 of the 7 points he racked up by scoring the equalising goal were already on the board. A further 6 of the 9 points he racked up for winning assists were already chalked up, plus another 2 points for an equalising assist. Van Persie had also played the full 90 minutes in 21 of our 26 league games, being brought off as a sub late on after scoring the winner one further game against Reading.
As a backdrop to this, by this point last season United had conceded 31 goals, this season we have conceded 32 and looked just as unconvincing as a unit in both campaigns.
Think about that for a minute. By the 26th game of last season Van Persie had a direct influence on 50 of our 62 points by that stage, and had either scored or provided the winning or equalising assist for 50% of our points!
Lets look at this season for comparison then. Below are the same two graphs for this season, scored in exactly the same way:
Last season Van Persie had arrived at United on the back of his best spell in English football. He had a rare good run with injuries whilst still at Arsenal and had been flying. For the first few months after he joined United he continued this good run, but slowly as the season progressed he started picking up more and more niggles. He was used sparingly in the FA cup and wasn't a regular starter in the Champions League to allow him to get through the league campaign in just about one piece.
However his form definitely dipped for a long period in the second half of the season, but by then it did not matter as United had been able to build up a huge lead against opposition who were either in disarray or transition (City basically downed tools under Mancini, Chelsea fans were on Benitez's back, Liverpool only just had a new manager in, as had Spurs, Arsenal had a poor season, etc...).
It was on this indifferent run of form and fitness that Van Persie entered this season. He started off brightly enough with a couple of goals in an unconvincing opening day win against Swansea, but so far this season he has been nowhere near as influential as he was at the same stage the year before.
Part of that is down to injuries. He has only played the full 90 minutes nine times so far this campaign, been taken off early but near ish the end of the game a further 5 times and come on as a sub once. In between those appearances he has been unavailable. When he has been available he hasn't looked fully fit. It is laughable to suggest that this is because of Moyes' dark ages training regimes when Van Persie's career injury record is considered. This lack of games was inevitable at some stage.
Despite all that, his goal return has actually been pretty good so far this season. He has got 10 goals in 14 starts, with two added assists. He also has been on the score sheet in games adding up to 25 of our 42 points so far this season. But just watching him in games this year though, it is clear he is a striker low on confidence and fitness. Both of those things come from a run of games and your team mates acclimatising to the runs you make and your general presence in the team, after a period of trying to get goals without you.
This shows in the amount of times Van Persie has popped up with the winner. So far this year he has only scored the winner in games adding up to 12 points, with a further 3 added for providing the equaliser. He hasn't provided any winning assists at all so far. That is around a quarter of our points haul he has secured directly and a dramatic drop from over half at the same stage as last season.
You just cannot take that big an influence out of a team and expect it to maintain the same level of performance. Just look what happened to Blackburn Rovers after Alan Shearer left. Although the fall was not as a dramatic, look at United with and without Ronaldo. We just weren't the same side once the Portuguese had left for Madrid, even though the United team of then was still significantly better than the one this season, man for man.
Before I sat down and worked out these numbers I thought last season was mainly all about Sir Alex Ferguson and his reputation scaring opposition managers out of points. When you look at these numbers though it becomes clear it was all about Van Persie. He wasn't just the grateful recipient of superb football from a good team, like say, Andy Cole's 40 goal season at Newcastle United. He was winning games for us on his own, despite how bad we were playing. Almost every half chance he had last season for the first few months went in the back of the net one way or another. You could be anyone from Mike Bassett to Sir Alex with that in your team and do well. If one man is both creator and provider for your entire team then you almost can't miss.
It is far too simple to pin this all on Moyes. If last season we were playing Rolls Royce football, with the best squad in the division seeing off a league of tough competitors, then I would say fair enough, get rid. I would love it to be as simple as sack Moyes, bring back the good times. Unfortunately it is not.
A lot of Manchester United fans seem to either not fully grasp the current situation or are in denial about it. Clinging onto the idea that this is all down to the current manager is a much more palatable prospect than admitting that for the first time in 25 years the club have a really poor squad which is not capable of challenging for the title when they don't have a saviour to bail them out and the opposition have gotten their act together.
Just look how many more points the title contenders have this year. Last year we were 11 points clear by now from a Manchester City that just wasn't doing the business often enough. As United fell away towards the season end nobody else mounted a fight back.
The 62 points we had last year after 26 games would put us 5 points clear of Chelsea with Jose Mourinho at the helm. Arsenal, City and Liverpool having all strengthened significantly are right behind them. That pack is going to drive each other on for the remainder of the season. United are not in that pack because they did not undertake the required surgery when it was starting to become critical around eighteen months ago.
When you look at the bigger picture it becomes obvious why United are where they are. Not only are the opponents stronger, but they no longer have to fear Van Persie on the rampage. Those two factors now compound each other. Teams don't fear United so they don't sit back, they go for it. Because they go for it United are on the back foot more often, less chances are being created and there is no golden boy to put the ball in the back of the net right now.
Van Persie and United might still come good this season, but what is needed right now is patience, not knee jerk reactions...
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